Origin late mail: Decider right up Tino's alley

New South Wales might be entering tonight's Origin decider as clear-priced favourites, but it was very much the same situation when Queensland had their backs against the wall in 2020.

It's still a vivid memory for every Maroons fan when 'the worst team in 40 years' upset the Blues in emphatic fashion at Suncorp Stadium, and one Titan who was part of that classic victory was Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, who once again will enter the Cauldron and represent the sunshine state. 

Wearing the same number jersey as he did that very night two years ago, the Gold Coast skipper will be filled with confidence knowing he and his Queensland teammates have been in this very situation before as underdogs and written off by almost every punter to get the job done in front of a full-house of 52,500 fans at the Maroons' spiritual home.

Queensland lead the head-to-head contest when it comes to wins at Suncorp, clinching 37 games to New South Wales' 20. There has been one draw in the 58 times the pair have met, with the Blues last winning 26-0 in Origin played at Brisbane.

Despite the adversity the Maroons have endured, one thing is for certain... they will bring the courage and determination to play for their mates and state and will not let anyone down when they run out - especially for Fa'asuamaleaui who will leave nothing in the tank against the Blues tonight.

Click here to see the latest markets from TopSport for tonight's big decider.

Late changes

Queensland

Corey Oates and Tom Dearden comes into replace Murray Taulagi and Cameron Munster who both were ruled out late last week with COVID-19.

The remainder of the side remains unchanged with Tom Flegler slotting into 18th man and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow also remaining in Billy Slater's final 19.

New South Wales

Jacob Saifiti will make his Origin debut, replacing Jordan McLean who was ruled out with a hamstring injury.

Brad Fittler has otherwise made no other changes with Game I man of the match Jack Wighton expected to miss out of a top 17 start as 18th man.

TopSport's special Origin market

Fa'asuamaleaui v Carrigan: Friends today, foes tomorrow

Whilst the two are teammates tonight, they will go head-to-head on Saturday in the Macca's Local Derby.

The Titans’ official wagering partner TopSport is predicting Tino will come out on top, placing him favourite to rack up more metres and tackles and have put together a special market between the pair.

Click here to view TopSport's special Origin market.

Past Series Deciders at Suncorp

In 40 State of Origin series, Game 3 has decided the series on 21 occasions, and on ten of those occasions the decider has been held at Suncorp Stadium. Evidently, it’s no easy task for New South Wales to head into the stadium affectionately known as ‘The Cauldron’ and secure the series in front of a partisan Brisbane crowd, and the results are reflective of as much.

In those season-defining games at Suncorp, New South Wales have walked away with the series on just one occasion; back in 2005 when they won 32-10. One of the other nine such matches ended in a 10-10 draw which saw Queensland retain the Shield, while the other eight all saw the home side win the game and with it the series. None of that bodes particularly well for the Blues heading into Game 3 this year – so can they buck the trend?

History of games at Suncorp Stadium

Suncorp Stadium has hosted far and away the most State of Origin games in history, with 58 matches having been played there since the inaugural series in 1982. This equates to nearly half the State of Origin games ever played, with just 67 played elsewhere, 30 of which have been at Stadium Australia, 14 more at Sydney Football Stadium, and no more than six anywhere else.

Indicative of the advantage that it gives them, the Maroons have a significant lead in the win-loss ledger at this ground. They’ve won nearly twice as many games as their southern neighbours at Suncorp Stadium, with 37 to their name; in contrast, New South Wales have won 20 times there, while there has been one draw.

In total State of Origin games, Queensland leads too, but only 65-55; meaning their success on their home deck has been disproportionate to that which they’ve enjoyed overall.

In recent times, that dominance has been even more stark. Harking back to the beginning of 2010, Queensland have won 12 and lost just two games at Suncorp Stadium. Granted they were winning most of the series during that time regardless, but even in the past few years when New South Wales have begun to wrest back control, the Maroons have been tough to beat on their home soil.

In both the 2018 and 2019 State of Origin series, Queensland’s solitary win came at Suncorp Stadium, while they won back the Shield there in 2020 after the series was tied at 1-1 heading to Game 3; a situation which may repeat itself in just a few days’ time.

Click here to see the latest markets from TopSport for tonight's big decider.

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